[10NL] 33...Set facing river donk AI

Originally Posted by Razvan729

even though your logic is perfect , i dont agree it works for 10nl, most of them will bet river for value. if it was 25nl+ and we'd have reads villain is a reg, i would be more inclined to agree 100% w/ you griffey.
just my opinion.

Yah for sure, for all I know ppl have 0% bluffing frequency in this spot at these stakes. I just think it's very easy to make decisions based on experience by calling 2 or 3 times in this spot and losing each time (ie: making the incorrect call) and then the 3rd or 4th time comes up and you fold when you would have won. Suddenly it goes from a 0% correct call (and clear fold), to a 25-33% correct call (and clear call) in this spot depending on if you would have called or folded in that fourth instance.

It's easy to over-estimate how often you'll lose in a spot, when even the right decision is supposed to be incorrect 75% of the time.

Originally Posted by griffey24

the 3rd or 4th time comes up and you fold when you would have won. Suddenly it goes from a 0% correct call (and clear fold), to a 25-33% correct call (and clear call) in this spot depending on if you would have called or folded in that fourth instance.

Yeah this is an interesting way to state it and it's something I think anyone in the BC especially should think about - not only should you lose that spot say 70% of the time, but it would not take much variance at all (ie. there's probably say a 20% chance that) the first 8 times you call that spot you lose, the long run is so long.